近期市场波动与模因股有关, 阿Archegos的内爆, and the Colonial Pipeline ransomware attack have shown how tail events can have a sudden and significant impact on markets.
在存第八届年度客户风险论坛上, 由安德鲁·格雷领导的风险专家小组, 存集团首席风险官, discussed the recent extreme market events and how new tools and enhancements to existing risk management frameworks better prepare markets for future disruption.
相关:对市场弹性、稳定性的看法 & 效率
Gray noted the industry’s resilience in the second year of the pandemic; however, 在大流行之外, 其他风险也存在. 供应链中断, 通货膨胀, 地缘政治问题, additional tail risks and extreme events continue to affect the industry and are likely to continue.
合作是关键
Joanne Rowe, Corporate Risk Officer of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (冰), spoke of how recent events have highlighted the necessity of strong threat intelligence, 与世界各地的监管机构建立了牢固的联系, 健全的风险管理和压力测试的重要性. Risks are interconnected and in a world of extreme tail events, market leaders need to manage expectations and challenge standard practices and conventional thinking about risk management, 她指出.
托马斯•瓦格纳 董事总经理, Cybersecurity Committee and Business Continuity Planning Committee, SIFMA, commented that the level of planning and cooperation between the public and private sectors has been successful given the number of extreme events the industry has witnessed in just the last few years.
The pandemic provided the industry with the ultimate business continuity planning test, 因为它影响了每个公司的每个领域. And while the resulting work from home situation did increase the number of cyber-attacks, 总的来说，这个行业是有弹性和准备的.
帮助工业做好准备, SIFMA will be conducting six global cyber exercises simulating a coordinated ransomware attack affecting multiple financial firms at the same time. 测试将涉及200家金融机构.S. 财政部, 中央银行, 监管机构, government agencies and law enforcement to examine the industry’s response and recovery actions from a potential ransomware attack. SIFMA will also be examining the cross-border communication and coordination that is so essential as threats continue to evolve.
“客户端s are looking for solutions that are built to be resilient by design, 看看极端但貌似合理的情况, 维持并继续提供我们的服务.”
理查德·伯纳 Co-Director of the NYU Volatility and Risk Institute at the NYU School of Business, agreed with the other panelists on the importance of the partnership between the public and private enterprise on sharing information. 在监管方面, FinCen recently published a new report on ransomware following President Biden’s executive order. Ransomware attacks doubled in 2020 from the prior year and have become a global phenomenon, 让行业和监管机构之间的合作变得至关重要. The attacks on JBS and Colonial Pipeline are examples of how attacks can disrupt critical infrastructure and financial systems.
丹Thieke, 存董事总经理, 业务风险和弹性管理, spoke of how the firm has been actively discussing business resilience since 2019, and in response to the extreme events the market has witnessed. “客户端s are looking for solutions that are built to be resilient by design, 看看极端但貌似合理的情况, 维持并继续提供我们的服务,他说.
存’s multi-year modernization effort includes building out technology and business processes using key resiliency principles to support the foundation for services going forward.
- 大规模的数据损坏或中断: 存 is building immutable storage capabilities to capture critical data at all levels and being able to restore that data. 基于与客户的对话, 在发生破坏性事件时, 存 has designed processes to go back to an earlier point in the processing day at a preestablished restore point in order to expedite the recovery time.
- 中断日内结算过程的事件: 存 also looked at scenarios to continue to finish the settlement day without too significant of a delay, 要么绕过正在失败的关键任务, 或者如果有多次失败, having processes in place to finish the settlement day with minimal delays. 如果发生更具破坏性的事件, be prepared to perform a settlement rollover by closing out settlement for that day but working with the industry to rollover cash balances to the next day.
- 财务弹性和传统风险管理: To increase transparency around margin calculations, 存 offers Risk Management as a Service. 可通过门户和API获得, 它允许客户进行日内风险监控, 管理日内追加保证金和现金头寸, 以及VaR计算器来提交假设的投资组合. 存还在构建一个压力测试计算器, 这将让会员们模拟极端的市场事件.
Related: Assets of the Future – Key Considerations for Post-Trade Infrastructure
新兴的DeFi和加密
The decentralized finance (DeFi) and cryptocurrency markets have been widely adopted by consumers, 包括最近推出的比特币ETF. While some feel that decentralized finance and crypto can improve efficiency and reduce risk, 它们也会给市场带来新的风险.
Berner added that DeFi and crypto have the benefits of innovation and cost reduction, 效率和速度, 但也可能因透明度降低而带来新的风险. In a world where some parts are centralized and permissioned and some are permissionless in ledgers, 需要有一种评估风险的方法.
Thieke指出, “it's important that these providers are held to the same standards from a resilience and risk management perspective that other critical service providers are.”
Climate risk is beginning to affect parts of the economy now, as wildfires are influencing the willingness and ability of insurers to cover damages.
对该行业面临的最大极端风险的看法
Panelists agreed that climate risk leads as a top extreme risk, 特别是由于许多未知因素. 伯纳补充说，这些问题不仅存在于未来. Climate risk is beginning to affect parts of the economy now, as wildfires are influencing the willingness and ability of insurers to cover damages.
报告还提到了网络安全和勒索软件攻击, 还有人才风险, as it's becoming more difficult to find talent in the current landscape. And increasing 通货膨胀 is challenging the supply chain world where creditworthiness may become more of an issue.